10up President & CEO Jake Goldman and 10up Lead Audience & Revenue Strategist have released a report/PDF that discusses, in depth, the impact of ad blocking for publishers. The data is based on some of their own large publishing clients, as well as larger web trends, and it’s pretty fascinating.
They also discuss what they predict will happen as a result of content blocking. They think there will be more native advertisements, and moves to self hosting ad and tracking scripts. But they also foresee more changes in overall revenue models. They don’t see that as a bad thing, but note it has taken some of their current customers years to transition, and some publishers won’t have that runway.
They see a near-future impact as being between 3%-11%:
Eight months from now, our hypothetical publisher could see a 3.7% drop in ad revenue. With astronomical content blocker adoption (3x desktop rates) driven by App Store visibility and media coverage, that number could be as high as 11%. A potentially severe setback for businesses with thin margins.
I actually am surprised it’s not higher, but they do the math that quantifies those numbers. I also agree with them that if a free app shows up for ad blocking, the consequences could be way higher.
This paper was really well done. If you’re curious about the challenges publishers face with content blocking, and what they may do to adjust their revenue models, do download and read it.